Zero skeptics: Schelling, 2009; H. Brown & J. Deutch, “The nuclear disarmament fantasy,” Wall Street Journal, Nov. 19, 2007, p. A19. Global Zero planning: B. Blechman, “Stop at Start,” New York Times, Feb. 19, 2010.
218. Democracy is obsolete: D. Moynihan, “The American experiment,” Public Interest, Fall 1975, quoted in Mueller, 1995, p. 192. See Gardner, 2010, for other examples.
219. Democracies and autocracies: Marshall & Cole, 2009.
220. Democratic Peace debate: Mueller, 1989, 2004a; Ray, 1989; Rosato, 2003; White, 2005b.
221. Democratic Peace is a Pax Americana: Rosato, 2003.
222. Democratic Peace strikes back: Russett & Oneal, 2001; White, 2005b.
223. A statistical Democratic Peace: Russett & Oneal, 2001.
224. Militarized interstate disputes: Gochman & Maoz, 1984; Jones, Bremer, & Singer, 1996.
225. Copious militarized interstate disputes: The analysis presented in Russett & Oneal, 2001, was based on the Correlates of War Project’s Militarized Interstate Dispute 2.1 Dataset (Jones et al., 1996), which runs from 1885 to 1992 (see also Gochman & Maoz, 1984). Russett, 2008, has since extended it with data from the 3.0 database (Ghosn, Palmer, & Bremer, 2004), which runs through 2001.
226. Support for the Democratic Peace: Russett & Oneal, 2001, pp. 108–11; Russett, 2008, 2010.
227. Democracies more peaceful across the board: Russett & Oneal, 2001, p. 116.
228. No Autocratic Peace: Russett & Oneal, 2001, p. 115.
229. Democratic Peace not a Pax Americana: Russett & Oneal, 2001, p. 112.
230. No Pax Americana or Pax Britannica: Russett & Oneal, 2001, pp. 188–89.
231. Peace among new democracies: Russett & Oneal, 2001, p. 121.
232. No Democratic Peace in 19th century: Russett & Oneal, 2001, p. 114.
233. Liberal Peace: Gleditsch, 2008; Goldstein & Pevehouse, 2009; Schneider & Gleditsch, 2010.
234. Golden Arches Peace: The idea is usually attributed to the journalist Thomas Friedman. An earlier marginal exception was the U.S. attack on Panama in 1989, but its death count falls short of the minimum required for a war according to the standard definition. The 1999 Kargil War between Pakistan and India may be another exception, depending on whether Pakistani forces are counted as independent guerrillas or government soldiers; see White, 2005b.
235. Skeptics of trade-peace connection: Gaddis, 1986, p. 111; Ray, 1989.
236. Raiding and trading: Keegan, 1993, e.g., p. 126.
237. Trade between England and Germany before World War I: Ferguson, 2006.
238. Trade explains World War I after all: Gat, 2006, pp. 554–57; Weede, 2010.
239. Trade reduces conflict: Russett & Oneal, 2001, pp. 145–48. Even controlling for economic growth: p. 153.
240. Trade and development: Hegre, 2000.
241. Openness to the global economy: Russett & Oneal, 2001, p. 148.
242. Democracy is only dyadic; commerce is monadic too: McDonald, 2010; Russett, 2010.
243. Capitalist Peace: Gartzke, 2007; Gartzke & Hewitt, 2010; McDonald, 2010; Mousseau, 2010; Mueller, 1999, 2010b; Rosecrance, 2010; Schneider & Gleditsch, 2010; Weede, 2010.
244. Pitting democracy and capitalism against each other: Gartzke & Hewitt, 2010; McDonald, 2010; Mousseau, 2010; but see also Russett, 2010.
245. “Make money, not war”: Gleditsch, 2008.
246. Scientists and world government: Mueller, 1989, p. 98.
247. Bertrand Russell and preemptive nuclear war: Mueller, 1989, pp. 109–10; Sowell, 2010, chap. 8.
248. European economic communities: Sheehan, 2008, pp. 158–59.
249. Peace and European IGOs: Sheehan, 2008.
250. All three variables: Russett, 2008.
251. International relations and moral norms: Cederman, 2001; Mueller, 1989, 2004a, 2007; Nadelmann, 1990; Payne, 2004; Ray, 1989.
252. “Realism” in international relations: See Goldstein & Pevehouse, 2009; Ray, 1989; Thayer, 2004.
253. Ideas and the end of the Cold War: Bennett, 2005; English, 2005; Tannenwald, 2005a; Tannenwald & Wohlforth, 2005; Thomas, 2005.
254. Glasnost: A. Brown, “When Gorbachev took charge,” New York Times, Mar. 11, 2010.
255. Kant on nations’ learning from experience: Kant, 1784/1970, p. 47, quoted in Cederman, 2001.
256. Back to Kant: Cederman, 2001.
257. Learning from mistakes: See also Dershowitz, 2004a.
Chapter 6: The New Peace
1. Expert predictions: Gardner, 2010; Mueller, 1995, 2010a.
2. “great power rivalries”: Quoted in S. McLemee, “What price Utopia?” (review of J. Gray’s Black mass), New York Times Book Review, Nov. 25, 2007, p. 20.
3. “blood-soaked course”: S. Tanenhaus, “The end of the journey: From Whittaker Chambers to George W. Bush,” New Republic, Jul. 2, 2007, p. 42.
4. “nothing but terrorism... and genocides”: Quoted in C. Lambert, “Le Professeur,” Harvard Magazine, Jul.–Aug., 2007, p. 36.
5. “more dangerous place than ever”: Quoted in C. Lambert, “Reviewing ‘reality,’ ” Harvard Magazine , Mar.–Apr. 2007, p. 45.
6. “the same damned thing”: M. Kinsley, “The least we can do,” Atlantic, Oct. 2010.
7. False sense of insecurity: Leif Wenar, quoted in Mueller, 2006, p. 3.
8. “new wars”: Kaldor, 1999.
9. Existential threats: For quotations, see Mueller, 2006, pp. 6, 45.
10. Decline of deaths and displacements in “new wars”: