and multiple pages flagged with colorful Post-it notes. As Kim Jong Un nears his second decade as North Korea’s leader in 2021, the relevance of Heuer’s now twenty-year-old book will endure because the players, events, and circumstances will change, altering regional dynamics and policies, and requiring new research and fresh analysis, as well as a revisiting of assumptions. His warnings about recognizing our biases will never cease to resonate for analysts because, as he noted, “mind-sets are neither good nor bad; they are unavoidable.” Heuer, who passed away at the age of ninety-one in August 2018, wrote that our perception of reality is inescapably influenced by “past experience, education, cultural values, role requirements, and organizational norms.” This reminder applies equally to the dictator in Pyongyang. Kim Jong Un’s mindset has been shaped by his understanding of the history of his family and country and his role in it, his neighbors’ actions, his experiences in manipulating his internal and external environments, and his awareness about his relative strengths and weaknesses vis-à-vis the political, military, and economic challenges he faces.
Yet Kim is still in the process of becoming—learning, adapting, and adjusting. We have to shape and constrain his ambitions and illusions, as his visions about his legacy and North Korea’s future reach new, and more dangerous, heights.
FOR J.B.H, N.E.H, AND W.B.H.
AND JOOMI
Writing this volume has been thrilling and humbling. In the process, I have come to realize how lucky I am to have the support, guidance, and friendship of so many individuals, whose generosity, scholarship, and sense of humor nourish me and give me strength.
I am grateful for Strobe Talbott, then president of Brookings, who encouraged me to write the Brookings Essay, “The Education of Kim Jong Un,” from which this book grew, and dedicated the organization’s resources and the enormous talent of the editorial, creative, and communications teams to make it a success. Bruce Jones has invested in me from the moment I stepped through the doors and ensured that I had everything I needed to thrive at Brookings. Mike O’Hanlon has been my champion, mentor, and friend, who read the manuscript in full and facilitated the external review process with three anonymous reviewers whose thoughtful suggestions made this a better book. The wisdom of Richard Bush and Mireya Solis is a daily source of strength and inspiration, and I am also thankful for their comments on the initial draft. My dear friends and colleagues Ryan Hass and Jonathan Pollack read parts of the manuscript and offered their insights. Nat Kretchun generously read a chapter and contributed important comments, and Mark Lippert gave helpful suggestions and encouragement. I am also thankful for SK Group, the Korea Foundation, and other donors for their generous financial support of the Korea Chair.
I am indebted to Paul Park, a gifted researcher, writer, and administrator, who helped me in my transition to the think tank world, as well as in juggling my multiple Korea projects. Jasmine Zhao, Eun Dubois, Sam Crosby, and Ethan Jewell also provided valuable assistance for the book, and Brookings librarians Laura Mooney and Sarah Chilton patiently fielded my requests for obscure articles and books. All errors are mine.
Outside of Brookings, I have been thrilled to find a collegial community of Korea watchers and Asia and nonproliferation experts, many of whom were former colleagues in the U.S. government.
Although I left the intelligence community (IC), it has not left me. I still have that sense of mission: to provide objective, rigorous, policy-relevant analysis. It was a privilege to serve in the Central Intelligence Agency and at the National Intelligence Council. To my mentors, sponsors, managers, and colleagues still in the IC—thank you. And sincere thanks to the officers at the CIA’s Publications Review Board, who reviewed this manuscript in the requested time.
My agent, Bridget Matzie, shepherded me through the entire process and cheered me on the whole way. My editor, the brilliant Susanna Porter, and her team at Ballantine made masterful contributions to the manuscript and made the volume so much better than I could have imagined.
Finally, I thank my husband, Jay, and my children, who bring me so much joy and fill my days with hugs and laughter, and Dick and Carol Habermann, who have warmly welcomed me into their lives and treat me like I am one of their own children. Nothing would have been possible without my parents, Ok Sook and Kwan S. Pak, who sacrificed everything to immigrate to the United States and taught me