Range - David Epstein Page 0,133

supply per person increased: This and other statistics in the paragraph (share of undernourished citizens; death rate from famine; birth rates; population growth trajectory) come from the incredible online publication Our World in Data, founded by University of Oxford economist Max Roser. The supply of calories per person per day, for example, can be found here: slides.ourworldindata/hunger-and-food-provision/#/kcalcapitaday-by-world-regions-mg-png.

United Nations projects: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, “World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables,” Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/248.

“now the population bomb has detonated”: P. R. Ehrlich and A. H. Ehrlich, The Population Explosion (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1990).

When economists later examined: K. Kiel et al., “Luck or Skill? An Examination of the Ehrlich-Simon Bet,” Ecological Economics 69, no. 7 (2010): 1365–67.

Tetlock decided to put: Tetlock gives the results of his work in great (and witty) detail in Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005).

“curiously inverse relationship”: Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment.

Superforecasters’ online interactions: P. E. Tetlock et al., “Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments,” Science 355 (2017): 481–83.

“Forecasts of dollar-euro exchange rates”: G. Gigerenzer, Risk Savvy (New York: Penguin, 2014).

“active open-mindedness”; “myside” ideas: J. Baron et al., “Reflective Thought and Actively Open-Minded Thinking,” in Individual Differences in Judgment and Decision Making, ed. M. E. Toplak and J. A. Weller (New York: Routledge, 2017 [Kindle ebook]).

never mind seriously entertain them: J. A. Frimer et al., “Liberals and Conservatives Are Similarly Motivated to Avoid Exposure to One Another’s Opinions,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 72 (2017): 1–12.

study during the run-up to the Brexit vote: Online Privacy Foundation, “Irrational Thinking and the EU Referendum Result” (2016).

skin cream and gun control: D. Kahan et al., “Motivated Numeracy and Enlightened Self-Government,” Behavioural Public Policy 1, no. 1 (2017): 54–86.

Not science knowledge, science curiosity: D. M. Kahan et al., “Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing,” Advances in Political Psychology 38, no. 51 (2017): 179–99.

“Depth can be inadequate”: Baron et al., “Reflective Thought and Actively Open-Minded Thinking.”

first four models: H. E. Gruber, Darwin on Man: A Psychological Study of Scientific Creativity, 127.

“views therein advocated”: The Autobiography of Charles Darwin.

“In one of the most remarkable interchanges”: J. Browne, Charles Darwin: A Biography, vol. 1, Voyaging (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1995), 186.

Einstein was a hedgehog: For one of many references to Einstein’s hedgehoginess, see Morson and Schapiro, Cents and Sensibility.

“A consensus seems to exist”: G. Mackie, “Einstein’s Folly,” The Conversation, November 29, 2015.

Niels Bohr . . . replied: C. P. Snow, The Physicists, (London: Little, Brown and Co., 1981). Einstein also expresses this idea in: H. Dukas and B. Hoffmann eds., Albert Einstein, The Human Side: Glimpses from His Archives (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1979), 68.

In four straight years: W. Chang et al., “Developing Expert Political Judgment: The Impact of Training and Practice on Judgmental Accuracy in Geopolitical Forecasting Tournaments,” Judgment and Decision Making 11, no. 5 (2016): 509–26.

CHAPTER 11: LEARNING TO DROP YOUR FAMILIAR TOOLS

It was early afternoon in fall: Professor Max Bazerman kindly allowed me to observe the Carter Racing case study at the Harvard Business School over the course of two days in October 2016. (The case study was created in 1986 by Jack W. Brittain and Sim B. Sitkin.)

“professional weakness shared by all”: F. Lighthall, “Launching the Space Shuttle Challenger: Disciplinary Deficiencies in the Analysis of Engineering Data,” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 38, no. 1 (1991): 63–74.

Boisjoly’s “away from goodness” quote is from transcripts of the Feb 25, 1986 hearing of the presidential commission.

Boisjoly had personally inspected: R. P. Boisjoly et al. “Roger Boisjoly and the Challenger Disaster,” Journal of Business Ethics 8, no. 4 (1989): 217–230. Boisjoly’s “away from goodness” quote is from transcripts of the Feb 25, 1986 hearing of the presidential commision.

most complex machine ever built: J. M. Logsdon, “Was the Space Shuttle a Mistake?,” MIT Technology Review, July 6, 2011.

McDonald and two Thiokol VPs: Transcripts of presidential commission hearings, which provided information and quotes in this chapter are available at history.nasa.gov/rogersrep/genindex.htm. Allan McDonald also gives a fascinating account of the investigation and the return of the shuttle to flight in Truth, Lies, and O-Rings (Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 2009).

“They said because they had flown”: From Diane Vaughan’s book, which includes a fascinating exploration of “the normalization of deviance” in decision making: The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture, and Deviance at NASA (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996).

“In God We Trust, All Others Bring Data”: A number of