Range - David Epstein Page 0,128
An Investigation of Conceptual Structures and Processes, ed. T. B. Ward et al. (Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, 1997).
maybe the planets were like magnets: D. Gentner and A. B. Markman, “Structure Mapping in Analogy and Similarity,” American Psychologist 52, no. 1 (1997): 45–56. Also, Kepler read a new publication on magnetism: A. Caswell, “Lectures on Astronomy,” Smithsonian Lectures on Astronomy, 1858 (British Museum collection).
“the moon’s dominion over the waters”: J. Gleick, Isaac Newton (New York: Vintage, 2007).
no concept of gravity as a force; “Ye physicists”: A. Koestler, The Sleepwalkers: A History of Man’s Changing Vision of the Universe (New York: Penguin Classics, 2017).
“I especially love analogies”: B. Vickers, “Analogy Versus Identity,” in: Occult and Scientific Mentalities in the Renaissance, ed. B. Vickers (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1984).
“action at a distance”: Gentner et al., “Analogy and Creativity in the Works of Johannes Kepler.”; E. McMullin, “The Origins of the Field Concept in Physics,” Physics in Perspective 4, no. 1 (2002): 13–39.
Suppose you are a doctor: M. L. Gick and K. J. Holyoak, “Analogical Problem Solving,” Cognitive Psychology 12 (1980): 306–55.
There once was a general; small-town fire chief; “might well have supposed”; “ill-defined” problems: M. L. Gick and K. J. Holyoak, “Schema Induction and Analogical Transfer,” Cognitive Psychology 15 (1983): 1–38.
An experiment on Stanford international relations students; college football coaches: T. Gilovich, “Seeing the Past in the Present: The Effect of Associations to Familiar Events on Judgments and Decisions,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 40, no. 5 (1981): 797–808.
Kahneman had a personal experience: Kahneman’s story is in his Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2011). With background on the inside and outside views, it is also in D. Kahneman and D. Lovallo, “Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts,” Management Science 39, no. 1 (1993): 17–31.
investors from large private equity firms: D. Lovallo, C. Clarke, and C. Camerer, “Robust Analogizing and the Outside View,” Strategic Management Journal 33, no. 5 (2012): 496–512.
qualities of the specific horse: M. J. Mauboussin, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2009).
the more internal details: L. Van Boven and N. Epley, “The Unpacking Effect in Evaluative Judgments: When the Whole Is Less Than the Sum of Its Parts,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 39 (2003): 263–69.
“natural causes”: A. Tversky and D. J. Koehler, “Support Theory,” Psychological Review 101, no. 4 (1994): 547–67.
90 percent of major infrastructure projects: B. Flyvbjerg et al., “What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?” Transport Reviews 24, no. 1 (2004): 3–18.
a massive underestimate: B. Flyvbjerg, “Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning,” European Planning Studies 16, no. 1 (2008): 3–21. The £1 billion price tag: S. Brocklehurst, “Going off the Rails,” BBC Scotland, May 30, 2014, online ed.
the movie business: Lovallo, Clarke, and Camerer, “Robust Analogizing and the Outside View.”
Netflix came to a similar conclusion: T. Vanderbilt, “The Science Behind the Netflix Algorithms That Decide What You’ll Watch Next,” Wired, August 7, 2013; and C. Burger, “Personalized Recommendations at Netflix,” Tastehit, February 23, 2016.
Lovallo and Dubin gave some students: F. Dubin and D. Lovallo, “The Use and Misuse of Analogies in Business,” Working Paper (Sydney: University of Sydney, 2008).
In 2001, the Boston Consulting Group: A short discussion about the impetus for BCG’s exhibits is: D. Gray, “A Gallery of Metaphors,” Harvard Business Review, September 2003.
Gentner and colleagues gave the Ambiguous Sorting Task: B. M. Rottman et al., “Causal Systems Categories: Differences in Novice and Expert Categorization of Causal Phenomena,” Cognitive Science 36 (2012): 919–32.
In one of the most cited studies: M. T. H. Chi et al., “Categorization and Representation of Physics Problems by Experts and Novices,” Cognitive Science 5, no. 2 (1981): 121–52.
“What matters to me”: Koestler, The Sleepwalkers.
1 percent of the national budget: N. Morvillo, Science and Religion: Understanding the Issues (Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010).
“If I had believed we could ignore these eight minutes”: Koestler, The Sleepwalkers.
When Dunbar started: An excellent background source on Dunbar’s work is: K. Dunbar, “What Scientific Thinking Reveals About the Nature of Cognition,” in Designing for Science, ed. K. Crowley et al. (Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2001).
“When all the members”: K. Dunbar, “How Scientists Really Reason,” in The Nature of Insight, ed. R. J. Sternberg and J. E. Davidson (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995), 365–95.
CHAPTER 6: THE TROUBLE WITH TOO MUCH GRIT
The boy’s mother appreciated: Details of Van Gogh’s life come from several main sources, including translated letters written by and to Van Gogh. More than nine hundred letters (that is, every surviving one) are available