Arab states.3
The second major sign of a thaw between MBS and al-Assad comes in mid-December 2018, when Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir visits al-Assad in Syria, a move “widely interpreted as a gesture of friendship on behalf of Saudi Arabia.”4 According to the Guardian, “For Saudi Arabia and the UAE, re-embracing Syria is a new strategy aimed at pivoting Assad away from Tehran’s sphere of influence.”5 In the view of “especially Emirati and Egyptian leaders,” the Guardian reports, Syria’s president is “one of them—an Arab autocrat fighting against what … [they] consider subversive [forces].”6 Meanwhile, “calls in Egyptian and Gulf media for Syria’s reinstatement [to the Arab League]” are spreading, as are “rumors about the reopening of the Emirati embassy in Damascus, which observers believe would serve as a backchannel for Saudi diplomatic overtures.”7 Concurrently, Jordan—another nation present at the founding of the Red Sea Conspiracy—“reopen[s] a southern border crossing” to Syria.8
Even so, December 2018 is still early days for normalization of the Gulf states’ ties to Syria, and there is no indication that any politician in the United States is interested in following suit. The Guardian notes that “for the west, Syria is likely to remain a pariah state.”9 According to one top European diplomat speaking in December, “There is no credible, genuine settlement process under way yet in Syria, so fundamentally there’s still no incentive for reconciliation with the regime.”10
In Syria, as elsewhere, Russia’s interests once again partially align with those of the Red Sea conspirators and Israel. Indeed, “Israel is working with Russia to reduce tensions in the disputed Golan Heights,” reports the Guardian.11 It is clear that if the United States can be convinced in the coming months and years to withdraw its forces from Syria and cede the country back to its autocratic head of state, it will give Russia free rein to continue its military operations in the country without fear of interference from American forces. Just so, Putin can find greater profit in his government’s special political and economic relationship with Syria once al-Assad’s regime and the nation he leads is brought back into the international community of nations on equal footing with regional peers.
Therefore, the chief problem for Putin, MBS, MBZ, and el-Sisi as December 2018 begins is that there simply has been no serious contemplation in the United States of withdrawing American forces from Syria and thereby opening a path to a political solution to the Syria question—critically, one that involves al-Assad remaining in power. Indeed, such a policy would run directly counter to America’s long-standing goals in the region, including both its humanitarian ambitions (with respect to the prevention of future war crimes) and its geopolitical ones, notably the direct and indirect fostering of revolutionary movements seeking the spread of democracy in the Middle East. While Saudi Arabia makes its first public gesture of friendship toward al-Assad in early December 2018, the notion that Saudi policy should lead to any change in American policy in Syria in either the short or medium term is beyond mainstream policy discussion in Washington. One indication of this is that, even as Sudan’s al-Bashir and Syria’s al-Assad meet, the U.S. State Department is “pressuring both Riyadh and Cairo to hold off on demanding a vote” in the Arab League to readmit Syria, a move that would complicate American military operations there.12
All of the foregoing notwithstanding, on December 19, Donald Trump shocks America and the world when CNN reports that “planning is underway for a ‘full’ and ‘rapid’ withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, [a] decision made by President Trump, [according to] a U.S. defense official.”13 The same day, Trump tweets, “We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump presidency.”14 In response, a Pentagon official gives the following statement to CNN: “So when does Russia announce their victory?”15 The answer turns out to be “within hours,” as Putin in the midafternoon of December 19 issues a statement through Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova lauding Trump’s decision as offering “a real prospect for a political solution [in Syria].”16 The next day Putin adds that “if the U.S. [has] decided to withdraw its [military] contingent, it has done the right thing.”17 Putin may well be responding to news, released the same day, that as part of its Syria withdrawal the United States is “set to close a base in Syria which has drawn the ire of Russia … [as] special forces will be withdrawn from the Al-Tanf base near the