An assistant took a seat at the remote part of the table, getting ready to take notes.
President Krassner entered, followed closely by two of his advisors.
Brief introductions identified General Foster, the president’s military advisor, a tall, proud man in uniform, with his chest covered in decorations, and Norbert Purvis, the national security advisor, who looked more like a businessman than a politician.
Going straight to the point, Doug Krassner was exactly how Henri thought he’d be, after seeing him on television on numerous occasions. Krassner had the reputation to be a smart, open-minded, and gutsy leader, willing to go a little differently about things and break some molds if that meant progress.
“Mr. President,” Seiden greeted him with deference, “thank you for seeing us on such short notice.”
“What’s on your mind, director?”
“This, sir,” Seiden said, pushing slightly forward Henri’s report, bound nicely in report covers bearing the CIA insignia in gold emboss.
“I flipped through some pages,” Krassner said, “makes for a very interesting read. So . . . we’ve entered Cold War two dot zero, huh? Great way to start my presidency.” Krassner smiled, an open smile not in the least bitter.
“Two dot zero, sir?” Seiden asked.
“My technology advisor said the new Cold War will involve technology way more than we’d anticipated. He came up with Cold War 2.0 instead of Cold War II, and it stuck.”
Everyone chuckled lightly.
Krassner cleared his throat quietly. “OK, let’s get started. What do you think this means?” He pointed at the report.
“War, sir,” Seiden replied. “Maybe not now, not this year, but definitely going toward war. Crimea might have been the trigger for a chain of events leading to global conflagration.”
“Can Russia go to war with the entire Western world? NATO is a powerful alliance.”
“My analyst suggested that we shouldn’t think of Russia in the traditional way, as planning to go to war directly and amassing thousands of tanks and troops in a direct, open invasion. Marino and her team think this war will be different, based on the profile they’ve built for President Abramovich and his actions to date.”
Krassner turned slightly to face Henri.
“What do you think these military actions are about?”
“Sir, I think these incursions are testing our response times, our response procedures, and our response strength. Overall, they’re testing our response, or wearing out our vigilance while testing our response.”
Seiden looked away briefly to hide his irritation. The incursions analysis was not completely finalized. Yet she was venturing a non-substantiated hypothesis, the exact opposite of what they had discussed on their way in. Well aware of that, Henri swallowed hard and mentally prepared to walk on thin ice. Whatever the risk for her career, Krassner needed to know the facts ASAP. It was an acceptable risk, if she were to be proven wrong. Much better than taking the risk of informing Krassner a few days too late.
“What for?” Krassner asked.
“Nothing good, that’s for sure,” she blurted. Without turning her head, she caught Seiden flashing an angry glance toward her.
“That’s an understatement,” Krassner commented. “Can you venture some guesses?”
“Umm . . . sure. I think they could be testing our response to figure out where and how to conduct a first strike. That’s one theory. Another theory is that they could be conducting these territorial displays of aggression to distract us, while they’re looking to launch ballistic missiles. The missiles scenario is covered in my report. In addition, a third scenario is that they could be doing these close-call incursions in the hope that someone on our side gets nervous and engages by accident. Although, in all fairness, I don’t see them caring too much about who started it, or who’s to blame. Abramovich is beyond that. He just wants vengeance for the Crimea sanctions and the public humiliation they brought him.”
“If you were to choose one scenario, which one do you think is the most plausible?”
She hesitated a little before answering, wondering, as many other people had wondered lately, how sure she was. Very.
“I’d have to say scenario two, sir. I’d have to go with the nuclear-strike scenario.”
Silence fell thick, lingering for a few seconds that seemed like hours. Krassner opened the report and briefly browsed through it, making a quick note on one of the pages.
Then he looked up at Henri again.
“What do you think of my technology advisor’s opinion, with respect to the new cold war? Do you think he has a point?”