The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Vio - By Steven Pinker Page 0,447

suicide terrorism: S. Shane, “Rethinking which terror groups to fear,” New York Times, Sept. 26, 2009.

227. Sinking favorables for Al Qaeda: Human Security Report Project, 2007.

228. al-Odah, “fostering a culture”: Quoted in F. Zakaria, “The jihad against the jihadis,” Newsweek, Feb. 12, 2010.

229. al-Odah, “My brother Osama”: Quoted in P. Bergen & P. Cruickshank, “The unraveling: Al Qaeda’s revolt against bin Laden,” New Republic, Jun. 11, 2008.

230. Favorable response to criticism of Al Qaeda: P. Bergen & P. Cruickshank, “The unraveling: Al Qaeda’s revolt against bin Laden,” New Republic, Jun. 11, 2008.

231. Mufti’s fatwa: F. Zakaria, “The jihad against the jihadis,” Newsweek, Feb. 12, 2010.

232. Jihad as Sharia violation: Quoted in P. Bergen & P. Cruickshank, “The unraveling: Al Qaeda’s revolt against bin Laden,” New Republic, Jun. 11, 2008.

233. Killing innocents: Quoted in P. Bergen & P. Cruickshank, “The unraveling: Al Qaeda’s revolt against bin Laden,” New Republic, Jun. 11, 2008.

234. Endorsing violence against civilians: Quoted in F. Zakaria, “The jihad against the jihadis,” Newsweek, Feb. 12, 2010.

235. Public opinion in war zones: Human Security Report Project, 2007, p. 19.

236. Cratering: F. Zakaria, “The only thing we have to fear . . . ,” Newsweek, Jun. 2, 2008.

237. Opposition to attacks on civilians: Human Security Report Project, 2007, p. 15.

238. Iraq death toll: Iraq Body Count, http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/, accessed Nov. 24, 2010. See also Human Security Report Project, 2007, p. 14.

239. Sunni Awakening: Human Security Report Project, 2007, p. 15.

240. The experts speak: Gardner, 2010; Mueller, 1995, 2010a.

241. Muslim armed conflicts: Nineteen out of 36 armed conflicts for 2008 in the PRIO database involved a Muslim country: Israel-Hamas, Iraq–Al-Mahdi, Philippines-MILF, Sudan-JEM, Pakistan-BLA, Afghanistan-Taliban, Somalia–Al-Shabaab, Iran-Jandulla, Turkey-PKK, India–Kashmir Insurgents, Mali-ATNMC, Algeria-AQIM, Pakistan-TTP, United States–Al Qaeda, Thailand–Pattani insurgents, Niger-MNJ,Russia–CaucasusEmirate,India-PULF, Djibouti-Eritrea. Thirty of 44 foreign terrorist organizations in the U.S. State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism 2008: http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2008/122449.htm, accessed Apr. 21, 2010.

242. Larger Muslim armies: Payne, 1989.

243. Muslim terrorist organizations: Thirty of 44 foreign terrorist organizations in the U.S. State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism 2008, http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2008/122449.htm, accessed Apr. 21, 2010.

244. Rarity of Muslim democracies: Esposito & Mogahed, 2007, p. 30.

245. Dubious democracies: Esposito & Mogahed, 2007, p. 30.

246. Fewer rights in Muslim countries: Pryor, 2007, pp. 155–56.

247. Cruel punishments: Payne, 2004, p. 156.

248. Oppression of women: Esposito & Mogahed, 2007, p. 117.

249. Slavery in the Muslim world: Payne, 2004, p. 156.

250. Witchcraft prosecution: A. Sandels, “Saudi Arabia: Kingdom steps up hunt for ‘witches’ and ‘black magicians,’ ” Los Angeles Times, Nov. 26, 2009.

251. Exaggerated culture of honor: Fattah & Fierke, 2009; Ginges & Atran, 2008.

252. Genocidal quotes: see Goldhagen, 2009, pp. 494–504; Mueller, 1989, pp. 255–56.

253. Arab Human Development Report: United Nations Development Programme, 2003; see also R. Fisk, “UN highlights uncomfortable truths for Arab world,” Independent, Jul. 3, 2002.

254. Insularity: “A special report on the Arab world,” Economist, Jul. 23, 2009.

255. Muslim tolerance: Lewis, 2002, p. 114.

256. Printing as desecration: Lewis, 2002, p. 142.

257. Subversive humanities: “Iran launches new crackdown on universities,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, August 26, 2010; http://www.rferl.org/content/Iran_Launches_New_Crackdown_On_Universities....

258. Clash of civilizations: Huntington, 1993.

259. What a billion Muslims really think: Esposito & Mogahed, 2007.

260. Muslim political organizations that endorse violence: Asal, Johnson, & Wilkenfeld, 2008.

261. Power law for terrorist attacks: Clauset & Young, 2005; Clauset et al., 2007.

262. Time to plan terrorist attacks: Mueller, 2006, p. 179.

263. Conjunction fallacy: Tversky & Kahneman, 1983.

264. Counting scenarios versus summing probabilities: Slovic et al., 1982.

265. Pay more for terrorism insurance: Johnson et al., 1993.

266. Taylor prediction: Mueller, 2010a, p. 162.

267. Allison prediction: Mueller, 2010a, p. 181.

268. Falkenrath prediction: Quoted in Parachini, 2003.

269. Negroponte and Garwin predictions: Mueller, 2010a, p. 181.

270. Expert reputations immune to falsified predictions: Gardner, 2010.

271. Assessing the risks of nuclear terrorism: Levi, 2007; Mueller, 2010a; Parachini, 2003; Schelling, 2005.

272. Not so mass destruction: Mueller, 2006; Mueller, 2010a.

273. Only three nonconventional terrorist attacks: Parachini, 2003.

274. Nations take their nukes seriously: Quoted in Mueller, 2010a, p. 166.

275. Pakistan won’t fall to extremists: Human Security Report Project, 2007, p. 19.

276. Radioactive scrap metal: Mueller, 2010a, p. 166.

277. Herculean challenges to nuclear terrorism: Quoted in Mueller, 2010a, p. 185.

278. Murphy’s Law of Nuclear Terrorism: Levi, 2007, p. 8.

279. Inevitable war with Iran: J. T. Kuhner, “The coming war with Iran: Real question is not if, but when,” Washington Times, Oct. 4, 2009.

280. Not the end of the world: Mueller, 2010a, pp. 153–55; Lindsay & Takeyh, 2010; Procida, 2009; Riedel, 2010; P. Scoblic, “What are nukes good for?” New Republic, Apr. 7, 2010.

281. Fatwa against Islamic bomb: “Iran breaks seals at nuclear plant,” CNN, Aug. 10,