The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Vio - By Steven Pinker Page 0,443

Melander, Oberg, & Hall, 2009; Goldstein, 2011; Human Security Report Project, 2011.

11. Conflict Catalog: Brecke, 1999, 2002; Long & Brecke, 2003.

12. PRIO Battle Deaths Dataset: Lacina & Gleditsch, 2005; http://www.prio.no/CSCW/Datasets/Armed-Conflict/Battle-Deaths/.

13. Related conflict datasets: UCDP: http://www.prio.no/CSCW/Datasets/Armed-Conflict/UCDP-PRIO/. SIPRI: www.sipri.org, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2009. Human Security Report Project: http://www.hsrgroup.org/; Human Security Centre, 2005, 2006; Human Security Report Project, 2007, 2008, 2009.

14. Categories of armed conflict: Human Security Report Project, 2008, p. 10; Hewitt, Wilkenfeld, & Gurr, 2008; Lacina, 2009.

15. Genocide more destructive: The calculation that genocide killed more people in the 20th century than war was first performed by Rummel, 1994, replicated by White, 2005a, and captured in the title of Goldhagen’s 2009 book on genocide, Worse than war. Matthew White (in press) points out that the comparison depends on how one classifies wartime genocides, which make up half the genocide deaths. Most deaths in the Holocaust, for example, depended on Germany’s conquest of Europe. If wartime genocides are added to battle deaths, then wars are worse, 105 million to 40 million. If they are lumped with peacetime genocides, then genocides are worse, 81 million to 64 million. (Neither figure includes deaths from famines.)

16. Genocide databases: Eck & Hultman, 2007; Harff, 2003, 2005; Rummel, 1994, 1997; “One-Sided Violence Dataset” in http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/.

17. Death categories: PRIO Documentation of Coding Decisions, Lacina, 2009, pp. 5–6; Human Security Report Project, 2008.

18. Concept of causation: Pinker, 2007b, pp. 65–73, 208–25.

19. World War I and the 1918 flu pandemic: Oxford et al., 2002.

20. Low rate of battle deaths: Average for 2000–2005, from the state-based battle-death figures reported in Human Security Report Project, 2007, based on the UCDP/PRIO dataset, Gleditsch et al., 2002. Population figures are from International Data Base, U.S. Census Bureau, 2010c.

21. Mean homicide rate: Krug et al., 2002, p. 10.

22. All death figures in these paragraphs are taken from the PRIO dataset: Gleditsch et al., 2002; Lacina, 2009; Lacina & Gleditsch, 2005. The dataset differs slightly from the UCDP/PRIO dataset that went into the three graphs: Human Security Centre, 2006; Human Security Report Project, 2007.

23. Interstate wars: PRIO New war dataset, “Best Estimates” for battle fatalities. Gleditsch et al., 2002; Lacina, 2009.

24. China’s peaceful rise: Bijian, 2005; Weede, 2010; Human Security Report Project, 2011. Turkey’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy: “Ahmet Davutoglu,” Foreign Policy, Dec. 2010, p. 45. Brazilian boast: S. Glasser, “The FP Interview: The Soft-Power Power” (interview with Celso Amorim), Foreign Policy, Dec. 2010, p. 43.

25. East Asian peace: Human Security Report Project, 2011, chaps. 1, 3.

26. Decreasing lethality of civil wars: Marshall & Cole, 2009, p. 114.

27. Declining lethality of all wars: Human Security Report Project, 2009, p. 2.

28. Poverty and war: Human Security Centre, 2005, p. 152, using data from Macartan Humphreys and Ashutosh Varshney.

29. Poverty may not cause violent resource competition: Fearon & Laitin, 2003; Theisen, 2008.

30. War as development in reverse: Human Security Report Project, 2008, p. 5; Collier, 2007.

31. Richer governments can keep the peace: Human Security Report Project, 2011, chaps. 1, 3.

32. Structural variables change slowly: Human Security Report Project, 2007, p. 27.

33. Police-induced love: Quoted in Goldhagen, 2009, p. 212.

34. Bad policing: Fearon & Laitin, 2003; Mueller, 2004a.

35. He’s our S.O.B.: Roosevelt may not have originated the trope; see http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=8204.

36. Proxy wars only part of the decline: Human Security Centre, 2005, p. 153.

37. Mao indifferent to deaths: Quoted in Glover, 1999, p. 297.

38. Mao OK with half of humanity dying: Quoted in Mueller, 2010a.

39. Vietnamese willingness to absorb casualties: Mueller, 2004a, pp. 76–77. American misestimation: Blight & Lang, 2007.

40. Grow beards or remain in Europe: C. J. Chivers & M. Schwirtz, “Georgian president vows to rebuild army,” New York Times, Aug. 24, 2008.

41. Anocracies: Human Security Report Project, 2007, 2008; Marshall & Cole, 2009.

42. The trouble with anocracies: Marshall & Cole, 2008. See also Pate, 2008, p. 31.

43. Distribution of anocracies: Human Security Report Project, 2008, pp. 48–49.

44. Resource curse: Collier, 2007; Faris, 2007; Ross, 2008.

45. Bottom billion in 14th century: Collier, 2007, p. 1.

46. Remnants of war: Mueller, 2004a, p. 1.

47. General Butt Naked: Mueller, 2004a, p. 103.

48. Statistics of civil wars: Fearon & Laitin, 2003, p. 76.

49. Improvement in African governments: Human Security Report Project, 2007, pp. 26–27.

50. African democratic leaders: R. Rotberg, “New breed of African leader,” Christian Science Monitor, Jan. 9, 2002.

51. International pressure: Human Security Report Project, 2007, pp. 28–29; Human Security Centre, 2005, pp. 153–55.

52. Democracies don’t have large civil wars: Gleditsch, 2008; Lacina, 2006.

53. Globalization reduces civil conflict: Blanton, 2007; Bussman & Schneider, 2007; Gleditsch, 2008, pp. 699–700.

54. Peacekeeping: