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p. 18, based on research in Luard, 1986.

120. Dropping out of the conquest game: Mueller, 1989, pp. 18–21.

121. Great power wars less frequent but more damaging: Levy, 1983.

122. Mysterious decline of force: Payne, 2004, p. 29.

123. Nonviolence a prerequisite to democracy: Payne, 2004, 2005.

124. Moral agitation and the slave trade: Nadelmann, 1990.

125. Homicidal and sexual fantasies: Buss, 2005; Symons, 1979.

126. Equation of visceral disgust with moral disgust: Haidt, Björklund, & Murphy, 2000; Rozin, 1997.

127. Degradation and mistreatment: Glover, 1999.

128. Medieval reintroduction of Roman judicial torture: Langbein, 2005.

129. Life was cheap: Payne, 2004, p. 28.

130. Productivity in book publishing: Clark, 2007a, pp. 251–52.

131. Libraries with novels: Keen, 2007, p. 45.

132. Increasing literacy: Clark, 2007a, pp. 178–80; Vincent, 2000; Hunt, 2007, pp. 40–41.

133. Increase in French literacy: Blum & Houdailles, 1985. Other European countries: Vincent, 2000, pp. 4, 9.

134. Reading Revolution: Darnton, 1990; Outram, 1995.

135. Turning point in reading: Darnton, 1990, p. 166.

136. Expanding circle: Singer, 1981.

137. History of the novel: Hunt, 2007; Price, 2003. Number of novels published: Hunt, 2007, p. 40.

138. Weeping officer: Quoted in Hunt, 2007, pp. 47–48.

139. Diderot’s eulogy for Richardson: Quoted in Hunt, 2007, p. 55.

140. Novels denounced: Quoted in Hunt, 2007, p. 51.

141. Morally influential novels: Keen, 2007.

142. Global campus: Lodge, 1988, pp. 43–44.

143. Republic of Letters: P. Cohen, “Digital keys for unlocking the humanities’ riches,” New York Times, Nov. 16, 2010.

144. Combinatorial mind: Pinker, 1999, chap. 10; Pinker, 1997, chap. 2; Pinker, 2007b, chap. 9.

145. Spinoza: Goldstein, 2006.

146. Subversive cities: E. L. Glaeser, “Revolution of urban rebels,” Boston Globe, Jul. 4, 2008.

147. Skepticism as the origin of modern thought: Popkin, 1979.

148. Interchangeability of perspectives as the basis for morality: Nagel, 1970; Singer, 1981.

149. Humanitarian revolutions in Asia: Bourgon, 2003; Sen, 2000. See also Kurlansky, 2006.

150. Tragic vision of human condition: Burke, 1790/1967; Sowell, 1987.

151. Readiness for democracy: Payne, 2005; Rindermann, 2008.

152. Madison, government, and human nature: Federalist Papers No. 51, in Rossiter, 1961, p. 322. See also McGinnis, 1996, 1997; Pinker, 2002, chap. 16.

153. French people as a different species: Quoted in Bell, 2007a, p. 77.

154. Tragic and Utopian visions: Originally from Sowell, 1987, who called them the “constrained” and “unconstrained” visions; see Pinker, 2002, chap 16.

155. Counter-Enlightenments: Berlin, 1979; Garrard, 2006; Howard, 2001, 2007; Chirot, 1995; Menschenfreund, 2010.

156. Schwerpunkt: Berlin, 1979, p. 11.

157. Cosmopolitanism as a bad thing: Berlin, 1979, p. 12.

158. Warmth! Blood! Life!: Quoted in Berlin, 1979, p. 14.

159. Super-personal organism: Berlin, 1979, p. 18.

160. “Men desire harmony”: Quoted in Bell, 2007a, p. 81.

161. The myth of social Darwinism: Claeys, 2000; Johnson, 2010; Leonard, 2009. The myth originated in a politicized history by Richard Hofstadter titled Social Darwinism in American thought.

162. War is noble: Mueller, 1989, p. 39.

Chapter 5: The Long Peace

1. World War II not the climax: War and civilization (1950), p. 4, quoted in Mueller, 1995, p. 191.

2. Predictions of doomsday: Mueller, 1989, 1995.

3. Lewis F. Richardson: Hayes, 2002; Richardson, 1960; Wilkinson, 1980.

4. A long future without a world war: Richardson, 1960, p. 133.

5. Hemoclysm: White, 2004.

6. Grim diagnoses of modernity: Menschenfreund, 2010. Prominent examples include Sigmund Freud, Michel Foucault, Zygmunt Bauman, Edmund Husserl, Theodor Adorno, Max Horkheimer, and Jean-François Lyotard.

7. Long Peace: Gaddis, 1986, 1989. Gaddis was referring to the absence of war between the United States and the Soviet Union, but I have broadened it to include peace among great powers and developed states.

8. Overoptimistic turkey: Usually credited to the management scholar Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

9. The population of the world: Historical population estimates from McEvedy & Jones, 1978.

10. Subjective probability through mnemonic availability: Tversky & Kahneman, 1973, 1974.

11. Misperceptions of risk: Gardner, 2008; Ropeik & Gray, 2002; Slovic, Fischof, & Lichtenstein, 1982.

12. Worst Things People Have Done: White, 2010a. See also White, in press, for narratives of the events and more recent estimates. The Web site lists the numbers and sources that went into his estimates.

13. An Lushan Revolt: White notes that the figure is controversial. Some historians attribute it to migration or the breakdown of the census; others treat it as credible, because subsistence farmers would have been highly vulnerable to a disruption of irrigation infrastructure.

14. Assyrian chariots: Keegan, 1993, p. 166.

15. Revolting savagery: Saunders, 1979, p. 65.

16. “The greatest joy a man can know”: Quoted in numerous sources, including Gat, 2006, p. 427.

17. Genghis’s Y chromosome: Zerjal et al., 2003.

18. Towers of skulls: Rummel, 1994, p. 51.

19. Forgotten massacres: White, in press.

20. List of wars since 3000 BCE: Eckhardt, 1992.

21. Hockey-stick graph of wars: Eckhardt, 1992, p. 177.

22. Associated Press versus 16th-century monks: Payne, 2004, p.