Evicted_ Poverty and Profit in the American City - Matthew Desmond Page 0,171

for every year she has lived in an apartment, all else equal. Turnover facilitates rent hikes, and evictions create turnover. Matthew Desmond and Kristin Perkins, “Are Landlords Overcharging Voucher Holders?,” working paper, Harvard University, June 2015. In San Francisco, Ellis Act evictions—often used to convert rent-regulated apartments into condos or market-rate units—increased by 170 percent between March 2010 and February 2013. Marisa Lagos, “San Francisco Evictions Surge, Report Finds,” San Francisco Gate, November 5, 2013.

13. Matthew Desmond and Rachel Tolbert Kimbro, “Eviction’s Fallout: Housing, Hardship, and Health,” Social Forces (2015), in press.

14. Desmond et al., “Forced Relocation and Residential Instability Among Urban Renters.”

15. Technically, the results of lagged dependent variable regression models showed that experiencing a forced move is associated with a standard deviation increase of more than one-third in both neighborhood poverty and crime rates, relative to voluntary moves. Across all models, the most robust and consistent predictors of neighborhood downgrades between moves are race (whether a renter is African American) and move type (whether the move was forced). Desmond and Shollenberger, “Forced Displacement from Rental Housing.”

16. Sampson, Great American City; Patrick Sharkey, Stuck in Place: Urban Neighborhoods and the End of Progress toward Racial Equality (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2013).

17. This finding is documented in a study called “Eviction’s Fallout,” coauthored with Rachel Kimbro. In that study, we rely on a dichotomous indicator to measure depressive symptoms in mothers. Mothers were asked a series of questions, focused on experiences in the previous twelve months, based on the Composite International Diagnostic Interview Short Form (CIDI-SF). Respondents were asked whether they had feelings of dysphoria (depression) or anhedonia (inability to enjoy what is usually pleasurable) in the past year that lasted for two weeks or more, and if so, whether the symptoms lasted most of the day and occurred every day of the two-week period. If so, they were asked more specific questions about: (a) losing interest, (b) feeling tired, (c) change in weight, (d) trouble sleeping, (e) trouble concentrating, (f) feeling worthless, and (g) thinking about death. Mothers were classified as probable cases of depression if they endorsed either dysphoria or anhedonia plus two of the other symptoms in the follow-up questions (leading to a CIDI-SF MD score of 3 or higher). Results are robust to varying the cut-point for the depression scale as well as to negative binomial models estimating the number of depressive symptoms respondents reported. See Ronald Kessler et al., “Methodological Studies of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) in the US National Comorbidity Survey (NCS),” International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research 7 (1998): 33–55.

18. Michael Serby et al., “Eviction as a Risk Factor for Suicide,” Psychiatric Services 57 (2006): 273–74. Katherine Fowler et al., “Increase in Suicides Associated with Home Eviction and Foreclosure During the US Housing Crisis: Findings from 16 National Violent Death Reporting System States, 2005–2010,” American Journal of Public Health 105 (2015): 311–16.

19. Sampson, Great American City.

20. This result draws on neighborhood-level data for Milwaukee, 2005–2007. Using a lagged-response model, I predicted a neighborhood’s violent-crime rate for one year, controlling for violent crime and eviction rates the previous year as well as for the percentage of families in poverty, of African Americans in the neighborhood, of the population under eighteen years of age, of residents with less than a high school education, and of households receiving housing assistance. The final model documented a significant association between a neighborhood’s violent crime rate and its eviction rate the previous year (B = .155; p < .05). See Matthew Desmond, “Do More Evictions Lead to Higher Crime? Neighborhood Consequences of Forced Displacement,” working paper, Harvard University, August 2015.

21. Milwaukee Area Renters Study, 2009–2011.

22. United States Conference of Mayors, Hunger and Homelessness Survey (Washington, DC: United States Conference of Mayors, 2013); Martha Burt, “Homeless Families, Singles, and Others: Findings from the 1996 National Survey of Homeless Assistance Providers and Clients,” Housing Policy Debate 12 (2001): 737–80; Maureen Crane and Anthony Warnes, “Evictions and Prolonged Homelessness,” Housing Studies 15 (2000): 757–73.

On the effects of substandard housing and unsafe neighborhoods on children’s health, see Julie Clark and Ade Kearns, “Housing Improvements, Perceived Housing Quality and Psychosocial Benefits from the Home,” Housing Studies 27 (2012): 915–39; Tama Leventhal and Jeanne Brooks-Gunn, “The Neighborhoods They Live In: The Effects of Neighborhood Residence on Child and Adolescent Outcomes,” Psychological Bulletin 126 (2000): 309–37.

23. Joseph Harkness and Sandra Newman, “Housing Affordability and Children’s Well-Being: Evidence from the National Survey of America’s Families,” Housing Policy Debate 16 (2005): 223–55; Sandra Newman