and “a leader who took one more step to achieve world peace by denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.” Moon’s political opponents, who had been criticizing Seoul’s rapprochement with Kim, excoriated EBS for promoting “a dictator, whom children should never look up to.” In response, EBS quickly backed down, saying the product would be discontinued and the puzzles that had been sold would be recalled.
The fact that EBS even thought to issue a children’s puzzle softening Kim’s image and celebrating his leadership showed a dramatic change in perceptions. It reflected the efforts of the Moon administration to transform Kim’s role from adversary to partner in the quest for peninsula peace and unity and demonstrated the effectiveness of Kim’s own efforts to shed his reputation as a murderous dictator through diplomacy and vague declarations about denuclearization. President Trump had also played a part, of course, in advancing Kim’s image makeover since the Singapore summit and the flurry of diplomatic activity.
And the reduction of Kim Jong Un to a caricature does seem hard to resist. In fact, if you look at this children’s puzzle, it might even be easy to forget that in 2019 Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats testified before Congress that North Korea “has for years underscored its commitment to nuclear arms,” poses a “significant cyber threat,” has shown a willingness to kill using chemical weapons, and has “conventional capabilities [that] continue to pose a threat” to the region and U.S. forces there. The problem arises when we derive policies from these softened caricatures and lose sight of who the man really is and the true nature of his strategic goals, while either overreacting or underreacting to his tactics and giving him space to continue to drive events on the Korean Peninsula.
KIM’S GOALS
Amid all the uncertainty and subterfuge surrounding one of the most intractable U.S. national security concerns, this much is clear: Kim Jong Un sees the possession of nuclear weapons as vital to achieving the development of North Korea’s economy and cementing his country’s strategic relevance and autonomy. These are key ingredients to solidifying his own power and ensuring the perpetuation of the Kim family dynasty. Judging from regime actions and propaganda since 2011, Kim has taken ownership of the program not only to highlight his power, independence, and unity of national purpose but to draw a contrast between North Korea and South Korea, which despite its wealth and international standing relies on an alliance with the United States for its national security. Kim Jong Un sees his country’s military programs as a national symbol of prestige and modern progress, and has pegged his personal legacy and the Kim family dynasty to them. Moreover, he has elevated and embedded nuclear weapons into both the popular consciousness and the ideological, physical, and cultural landscape, enshrining them in the constitution and linking them to North Korea’s prosperity.
Externally, Pyongyang wields its nuclear weapons program to deter a U.S. attack and invasion and to conduct coercive diplomacy—including the use of limited violence—to weaken Washington’s alliances with Seoul and Tokyo, retain independence of action from Beijing, and maintain North Korea’s strategic relevance amid wealthier and more powerful neighbors. Kim Jong Un has manufactured and exploited crisis situations by conducting provocative actions and cleverly uses the perception of the regime’s unpredictability and volatility to extract economic and political concessions. Kim’s technological advances and demonstrated capability to potentially hit the United States with a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile locks in Washington’s attention, which in turn affords him leverage to shape and drive the relationship with his neighbors. He can engage on his terms by exploiting Beijing’s desire for stability and concern about being sidelined in nuclear or peace negotiations; Seoul’s domestic priorities, such as the reunions of families separated by the Korean War and its current ambition to interweave the economies of the two Koreas; and Japan’s fears of looking in from the outside and its priority of resolving the abductee issue. Kim—like his father—has preferred bilateral relationships, which give him the opportunity to play off regional rivalries, strategic competition, and historical animosities. And he has had some success in undermining sanctions through evasion techniques and with diplomacy.
Kim inherited much of his mindset and approach from his father, Kim Jong Il, but Jong Un has managed to accelerate and exploit North Korea’s capabilities, despite deepening isolation and a growing list of sanctions. His brazenness and high risk tolerance emanate from the fact that he came to power with an advanced nuclear weapons program already in